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Notstocks Blog
Articles on private companies, startup valuations and the markets before an IPO.
Beginners: How Prediction Markets Work and Trade Private Markets
A beginner-friendly explainer on how prediction markets price outcomes, CFTC settlement rules, trading steps, common risks, and trading private-company...
October 1, 2026Read
For Researchers: Report Brier REL, RES, UNC and BSS, Avoid Bin Bias
For researchers: compute and report the Brier score with REL/RES/UNC decomposition, use bias‑corrected estimators for binning, and reproduce results with...
October 1, 2026Read
$770,000 in 24 Hours: NotStocks Listing Verification Explained
See how NotStocks verifies private company listings with a step by step workflow, evidence checklist, timeline, and practical tips to avoid holds and...
September 30, 2026Read
Traders: Read Implied Valuations on Secondary Market Startups
Trader-focused explainer on turning event-contract prices into implied valuations, spotting thin liquidity, and evaluating NotStocks listings before you...
September 29, 2026Read
When to Trust Prediction Market Accuracy, Practical Rules and NotStocks
An evidence based explainer of prediction market accuracy: when to trust prices, which calibration biases matter, and what NotStocks changes.
September 28, 2026Read
Calculate the Follow On Cost: Pro Rata Rights for Founders & Investors
Practical explainer for founders and investors: calculate pro rata buy in, negotiate basis and caps, and use market signals to decide whether to fund a...
September 27, 2026Read
1.4¢ Gaps Shrink to 0.6¢: Prediction Market Arbitrage for Traders 2026
2026 execution checklist for traders: avoid bot races, confirm settlement semantics, size to liquidity, and automate unwind rules.
September 27, 2026Read